The Great Divorce

Marriage counseling for US & China

For at least 2 centuries, human history has been defined by the competition of two camps.

For the greater part of the 19th century, it was the Great Game, a competition for power in Central Asia between the British and Russian Empires.

The first half of the 20th century was essentially a struggle between Germany and the rest of the world, culminating at first in the Great War, and, after a brief intermission, its even more dramatic sequel.

What followed was the Cold War, lasting for almost half a century.

Now it is all but certain that the great-power competition between the US and China will define at least the majority of the 21st century.

So when our century ends, how would our posterity call it?

Some are already calling it Cold War 2.0. I have thought about it, but I don’t think it will stick.

In the original Cold War, there were two ideologically opposed powers that vied to change and even destroy the system of the other side. In the meantime, both sides set up military alliances with themselves at the cores. Both sides were also busy sponsoring coups, revolts, and wars - actual wars - all around the world.

In the current episode, however, at least one side (China) is not doing any of these. Although China has ideological differences from the US, it is not interested in changing the American way of life. China has not and will not set up a military alliance, and China is not sponsoring proxy wars or coups in other parts of the world. In a nutshell, even if this is Cold War 2.0, you won’t find China planting missiles in Cuba anytime soon.

In the meantime, China is way more integrated with the global economy than the Soviet Union ever was. Judging from the recent policy stance, China will be even more so. For instance, in the recently concluded Central Economic Work Conference, it was clearly stated that China would continue to pursue “unilateral openness”, meaning openness without asking for requite, to the global market.

Clearly, a more accurate word is needed to describe the time we are in right now.

And it’s not just a game of words. The right word informs the right perception, and the right perception leads to the right action. If the word is a “war”, then we will be locked in a war mindset. But are we really at war? What if it’s something else?

The US-China Marriage

To me, the US-China relations from the 1970s up until the late 2010s are like a marriage.

The courtship first began in 1971, when Henry Kissinger secretly visited China and met Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai in Beijing. The two sides quickly hit on each other, sharing mutual hate for their common enemy at the time, the Russians.

It’s not an equal relationship from the beginning. China has always been the weaker party. Impoverished and clueless about how things work in the world, yet she had a bright pair of eyes and was always eager to learn new things to grow out of poverty. The US, in turn, offered himself up as this willing knight, rescuing the damsel from distress, teaching her, cultivating her, helping her grow, and ultimately hoping to change her.

There were occasional break-ups for sure, like in 1989, but love always prevailed. Eventually, the relationship reached a crescendo when the US allowed China to enter the WTO.

“You are one of us now”, or so he hoped.

The love was consummated. They got married.

However, it was ignored from the beginning that China never really wanted to be changed in the mold of the US. All China ever wanted was to grow stronger and richer for herself. Of course, she was thankful for the US to help her in this process, but she would have her own way. To the US, this felt like a betrayal. To China, the whole affair smelt of “爹味” (Dad vibes/mansplaing) from the very beginning.

The tension had always been there. It was mostly ignored because the power differential between the two was too large. But as China grew stronger and closer to the size of the US, the US felt threatened by the supposedly junior partner of this relationship. Adding fuel to the fire was the perception that instead of being more like the US, China became more and more unrecognizable - at least to the US.

At a certain point, there was a massive fight. The point of no return was passed. The couple headed for a divorce.

The Great Divorce

The Great Divorce is what I think our century will be most aptly called, an end to the half-a-century-long courtship between the US and China.

Like any divorce, it can be really nasty. Tension can run extremely high. Like any divorce, there is a scramble to decide on what belongs to whom. Like any divorce, there will be minimal interest for each side to talk to each other. Like any divorce, the couple try to “decouple” from each other as soon as possible.

But, there are key differences between a divorce and a war, even just a cold war.

War is zero-sum, while divorce only means two sides parting their ways.

Divorced people don’t have to destroy each other. In fact divorced people still have common issues at stake here. After all, the world is not just about these two. For instance, they still have to take care of their children, just in the same way the US and China should take care of common existential problems plaguing our humanity.

Whether China and the US can manage this Great Divorce so that they do not have to bother about each other, nor do they have to hurt each other, while in the meantime finding a workable mechanism to manage common interests, will be the single most geopolitical thing in our century.

This is why I am starting this new newsletter, “The Great Divorce: Marriage Counseling for the 2 Superpowers”, dedicated to observing US-China relations and reminding all of us how we can carry this divorce safely through.

Stay tuned!